OK, that’s not QUITE right. Some of these things are not like the others.
I’m referring to the death rate in different countries. It varies widely, which would indicate that we really can’t use statistics from one country to predict what will happen in others.
In other words, using them to set up computer models of predicted outcomes will not be reliable.
See the map (from a Daily Mail story):
France shows 7, 574 deaths for a caseload of 90,843 – that’s a 8.3% death rate.
The UK shows 4,120 deaths for 42,449 cases – an almost 10% death rate.
Italy: 15,362 deaths, 124,632 cases – over 12%!
Clearly, these are NOT the numbers we are seeing in the USA. For us, as of yesterday:
9,620 deaths, 336,851 cases – death rate slightly under 3%
NY is almost 1/2 that total number of cases – 123,018. Deaths in NY – 4,159. That brings NY’s death rate to just under 3.4%
Not great, but not at the levels of many European countries.
What does that all mean?
What needs to be addressed is WHY death rates differ so widely among the states. States with similar number of cases have widely differing death rates:
IL – 274 deaths, 11,256 cases – 2.4% death rate
PA – 150 deaths, 11,510 cases – 1.3% death rate
Both states contain urban and rural parts, both have impoverished people/old people/ill people. And, yet, dramatically different outcomes. Go check out the stats yourself, and come to your own conclusions.
This epidemic will be the focus of many epidemiological studies for many centuries (should civilization survive – which, I think likely). But, for now, using the models to make policy for our country would be foolish, as long as the models are based on the extremely high death rates of some countries.
One major way America does planning for public health needs to change – I address it here.
The difference is the US was very aggressive from the get go (Thanks Trump) other countries not so much. The difference within the Us is explained the same way. A great example is side by side pictures. NYC subway, Few masks no gloves packed in a normal manner. California, lone guy in the ocean paddling along on his board and here come the cops roaring up like he’s a drug kingpin. Give Newsom credit he’s aggressive on fighting this unlike some others.
As far as planning for the future if you’ll allow a slight divergence, If you were using the Franklin system on a personal level you would have to move pleasant activities to quadrant II but otherwise it works the same.
Both this and the torch article excellent. Congrats.
Sift out the old , and the sick, and the old and sick, and the death rate drops to almost nothing. This virus is ripping through nursing homes and hospitals killing people who are in bad shape anyway. At least that is what every chart I can find says, that has the data broken down by age, and existing conditions. I have looked at Italy, NYC, and Virginia, and one other I can’t remember- all the same. Old, sick, old and sick. Essentially, If you are in good shape, no conditions, under 60 don’t worry about it.
Lot’s of lurid stories, but it sure looks like this thing is pulling mortality forward, AKA killing those with little time left.
And our stupid lockdowns are keeping them from even having the comfort of a loved one near.(along with all the others in lockdown who pass from unrelated causes.)
Plus, by definition, a person has to be sick enough to be admitted to be a “case”. If the flu were defined like this, it would likely have a much higher death rate also. The inclination (and instruction) to label every possible death as due to wu-flu also contributes to a bad data set.
A month almost further on and it is starting to look like Kung Flu isn’t any more deadly over all than basic flu.
That being said, the inner dictator of various governors and mayors is starting to show with the inevitable push back from your common American.
Worse is it appears the total shutdown and virus is threatening the food supply chain. We are investing in rabbits to cover the gap in loss of meat that is being warned about. Having had rabbits previously I am confident of having meat supplemented by fishing to get us through without resorting to poaching. Even here in the north we can start planting early crops for fresh veggies so in about two months we will be food self sufficient. In July starts wild berry harvest and our early apples start in late August.
Returning to the subject of rabbits. Rabbits are the easiest and cheapest way to raise you own meat. If you live were you can have them I recommend getting them.
Live free and stay safe my friends.
Type the wrong name for the above comment. It’s really me.