As far as political ranting goes… well, I’ve got to get something off my chest. This Coronavirus business has made people insane. I don’t know any other way to put it. There are those out there who are convinced this thing is so bad, we need to stay locked up until the end of time, and in trademark Leftist fashion, if even one person dies…. Wuhan Flu is serious, certainly serious enough to take some sensible precautions. There is no evidence I’ve seen that suggests it’s the fucking plague.
On the other hand, there are those who are going on as if nothing is happening, and they are pretty dumb too. Beaches were opened back up recently in my state. And by itself, that is fine. I’m worried that excessive use of executive power to enforce the lockdown can go very badly in the end. But just because you can do a thing does not mean you should. Hordes of people going to the beach to party… well that’s pretty dumb too. It’s one thing if you need to break quarantine to earn a living, to get food, to do the things you need to do for you and yours.
It’s quite another to party as if nothing is happening. Again, it’s their right. But it’s stupid.
Worse than both of those, though, is the SURETY so many folks posting all over social media appear to have. They use the word “facts” after a cursory 5 minute Google search, or watching some journalist on TV, one who hasn’t been right about anything since before Donald Trump was elected President. The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is in full force. And they get so damned angry when you dare to point out that, quite frankly, very few people know what they are talking about.
I don’t either! But at least I’ll say so. We’re not really going to have solid numbers on this disease until the threat has passed, in all likelihood. It’s one thing to make a semi-educated guess based on the fragmentary data we have now. It’s quite another to claim it’s a “fact”.
Take fatality rates by country. Some Leftists have been bloviating about how America has the highest death toll! Okay. America has, for example, roundabout 5 times the population of Italy. You need to compare death rate per capita. Second, China’s numbers are most likely bogus, and probably much higher than they’ve reported. I have no specific evidence of this, but that is standard operating procedure for the ChiComs: saving face and burying the truth. They certainly buried the impact of the disease when it was in its early stages. Why should anybody trust their numbers now?
But beyond that, data collection methods differ by country. For instance, if someone has cancer, and coronavirus, and dies… which one is labeled as the cause? How accurate is the tally in each country? How corrupt is each country’s government? Speculating on relative death rates per capita using the official numbers as a base, I get that. It’s probably still inaccurate, but it’s something to look at.
Being SURE about the numbers… that’s a different kettle of fish.
The same operates on the side of some Rightists, many of whom appear to be taking the threat too lightly given the lack of data. If you don’t know for sure how bad it is, it makes sense to take some precautionary measures until you can assess the risk more accurately. I get that the various governments are exceeding the bounds of the Constitution in many places, and need to be smacked down, in case these measures acquire some kind of permanence. But one of the few legitimate functions of a government is to protect the citizenry from the kinds of existential threats individuals, alone, cannot effectively defend against. The same moral justification for the existence of the military may be valid in the case of an international pandemic.
I am very, very worried about politicians getting a taste for power right now. So I’m not going to shit overmuch on the people who are angry at the limitations. Again, I don’t have enough accurate data or knowledge to make these kinds of calls. Neither do the politicians. Or the protesters. So do as you will, as makes sense to your own personal risk assessment.
But understand that not even the doctors are sure about much of anything right now.
And be ready to change your position as better data trickles in. We may find that we grossly overreacted to this.
Then again, we ma