Good Lord – and I feel justified in invoking Him in this – what a mess since I’ve last dropped a blog post here. I have a mix of good, bad, and ugly. Some may prefer the bad news first, but I’ll lead with the good instead, because in light of a lot of folks being stuck indoors for the duration, this may be a helpful recommendation.
My good friend Francis is releasing his new book The Warm Lands for free this Friday (Amazon link). We’re all going to need a lot of reading material, I suspect. By nature, I am an introvert, and so I suppose being stuck indoors with a virtual stack of books is not the worst thing that could happen. In any event, folks, nab yourself a copy and pass it along to your friends. You’ll need the entertainment in the days to come.
But then I look at my various investments. You know, a friend of mine known ’round the world as ClarkHat told me I’d be better off going cash. I didn’t listen. Usually I have an internal heuristic: ClarkHat is always right. It’s not 100% accurate, but it’s well north of 95%. Next time I’ll remember that a bit better. I kept a lot of my holdings in gold, and even that tanked, which was pretty damned shocking. Last Thursday I made the mistake of looking at my investment balances, and it took about a quarter of a bottle of cheap scotch going down the hatch to numb the pain.
Preparations-wise, I am good to go. Being the paranoid introvert that I am, I was well ahead of the game in stocking up with canned goods and various foodstuffs. Ammunition? Heh. It’s me. I’ve got enough to conquer my zip code without too much difficulty. I joke about leading a Mad Max Road Warrior gang up the I-4 corridor to sack Disneyworld and make it the seat of my hive of scum and villainy. I’m only mostly joking.
Look, I’m not a doctor. So I won’t dispense advice of the nature, save to mention that my brother is in medical, in the military, and he’s been indicating that things are very bad. They are working him to the bone on lab testing, and the information coming down from on high hasn’t been very optimistic. I’ll summarize my thoughts on the matter:
- This isn’t the zombie apocalypse. Fatality rates seem to vary from 0.7% at the low end to 7% at the high end, depending on a lot of factors. ~2% seems to be pretty standard, insofar as we can tell. That’s not enough to collapse a civilization, but…
- …It is enough to collapse an economy. If the lockdown/suppression activity ends in a few weeks, I expect the markets will snap back into place like a rubber band. Most of the losses will be made good. Business as usual will resume. But that does not seem likely. If lockdowns continue for months without end, I expect the economic damage will be severe. The rubber band will break. Enter a depression to make the ’08 recession look like a walk in the park.
- The fact that Trump is already talking about massive stimulus and UBI packages indicates that he’s well aware of this. Things are going to get ugly, economically. Prepare accordingly.
- If all of the above is true, we might get a major political shift. We’re talking once-in-a-generation shift.
Consider that white liberal urbanites have been spotted lining up at gun stores in otherwise gun-unfriendly locales like California. Deep down, I think they know the same truth that Francis has talked about at his place on more than one occasion: urban race relations are very poor. Add social justice race hustling to the mix, and… well we saw what happened in Ferguson. With this crisis comes the opportunity for a great deal of nefarious behavior. We know it. Hustlers know it. And the urbanite cosmopolitans – for all their supposed enlightened sophistication – know it too.
This goes far larger than that, though. Border shutdowns are being discussed even in the European Union. We may see a shift away from globalism, and its supply chain vulnerabilities to diseases like this, to stronger borders and domestic manufacturing and supply chains despite a higher cost in dollars, because now awareness of vulnerability to situations like this one is added to the “cost” column. The fact that China was saber-rattling with Trump about the possibility of stopping pharmaceutical shipments to the US is a big red flag, and probably a knee-jerk misstep on the part of the Chinese. That only adds to this perception.
So while Trump appears to be shifting Leftward on policies like temporary UBI, the rest of the populace may be shifting rightward on matters of border security and “social justice” stupidity. How much time does anyone have for genderqueer fartkin when the economy is taking a gigantic dump and a worldwide pandemic is in full swing? Expect patience for that stupidity to evaporate like a fart in a hurricane.
I don’t know where this leaves the 2020 election, except that if Trump plays his cards right, he could come out looking like a prophet with regard to his on-the-record opposition to Chinese supply chain dominance in particular, and globalism in general. But either way, one of Taleb’s Black Swans has made its appearance, and I expect the ramifications from COVID-19 to continue to echo for many years. The political and economic fallout may well be an order of magnitude greater than the disease itself.
Meanwhile, active debate continues among many very intelligent people in my circle as to how bad the disease really is. It’s probably not worth buying 500 boxes of toilet paper – as some have done. But if you don’t have 3 months of food, water, and other consumables now, you better get on that. A 2% fatality rate is enough that things will be shutdown. No polity can tolerate that high of a death rate for an extended period of time in the modern era. Governments will take all kinds of measures – for good or ill – to prevent it. Navigating the suppression of the disease through social distancing while avoiding catastrophic economic collapse will be a hard road. I expect some countries will fail in this regard. Others (like China) will probably turn to outright tyranny to suppress it.
It may very well be that the WWE President Comacho… er… Trump is exactly what the doctor ordered (sorry, the pun was irresistible). Either way, as a friend of mine said earlier today, this will further reduce the Obama legacy to oblivion, sandwiched between the 9/11 president, and the Kung Flu president. An empty suit who faced little in the way of challenge.
Stay safe, my friends, and attend to your reading lists. May God keep you.
Books? There is no such thing as to many books. Online gaming works also.
Unless you invested in shaky stocks sitting on them should be your best strategy.
Preparations, Guns and ammo and food and water. Amazon has stopped shipping from independent sellers through
April 5. Food storage places have a one to two month wait on shipping due to demand. Wal Mart is starting to look like one of those pictures of those old Soviet grocery stores as are the other big grocers.
Fortunately we have enough food to last until the majority of snow is gone and deer and bear come out of the deep woods. Then there is always fishing since we do live in Michigan.
Stay safe, pray mightily and remember the old west gunfighter adage, There’s always someone quicker and a better shot out there.
SECOND!
Waaaay ahead of ya on the food, water, guns & ammo thing. I can take on a Posleen invasion single-handed.
I understand that doctors & clinics are cancelling appointments for non-critical patients NATIONWIDE in preparation for a tsunami of potential COVID-19 emergency patients.
Certain places will go straight to Hell – urban California, NYC, SeaTac, some other spots that haven’t emerged yet (I’m betting Philly, St Louis, Cleveland, Dayton, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron and Chicago will be the next set.) I suspect we will see intrastate movement curtailed from the hot spots. I believe most of the rest of the nation, though, will get thru this more quickly, and I’m willing to bet that most of us will get back to near normal before 6 weeks have passed.
China needs to pay a price for this – A VERY BAD ONE. This is the third motherfuckin’ plague organism they’ve generated in the last 20 years: SARS in 2002, Swine Flu/H1N1 in 2009, and now this. Furthermore, there are two flu epidemics originating from China EVERY YEAR.
Their incompetence, sloth and callousness in raising livestock is the root cause of most of this – that, and their predilection for eating bats. There needs to be a reckoning which is agonizing enough to compel China to clean up its act.
I’m extremely worried about my parents – mom is 89 with chronic lung disease, dad is 94 with long term heart disease. Dad is the ‘weak link’ – he constantly makes mistakes when handling mail, is stubbornly resisting being stuck at home, doesn’t wash his hands nearly enough and is constantly touching his face, mouth and eyes. I hope the Good Lord can throw a little luck this way and nudge the 1st Horse (Pestilence, on a white steed) away from their home.
Oh, and let’s all extend a hearty welcome to our new contributor Thales!
😉
Thanks for mentioning the giveaway, my friend.
Notably, Obama exploited the few challenges he faced to expand federal power. He was unconcerned with Americans’ well-being, and actively worked against American interests internationally. Awareness of those facts, thrown into high relief by President Trump’s many successes, is spreading rapidly. And so Obama, who once mocked Trump by saying “Well, @realDonaldTrump, at least I will be remembered as president” and dropping his cellphone, might soon wish that he wouldn’t be remembered at all.
I just typed out a comment, but it seems to be stuck in Moderation Purgatory. Hence, I will split it up to make it more digitally digestible.
Part 1:
Well said, FWP.
Note the following contrast between Obama’s response to Swine Flu in 2009 (which resulted in 12,469 Americans dying and hundreds of thousands hospitalized) and Trump’s response to the current crisis:
https://pjmedia.com/trending/flashback-obama-played-golf-the-same-day-his-administration-declared-h1n1-a-public-health-emergency/
Will America learn of this from the MSM? Nope.
Will America instead be told by the MSM that Trump is callously mishandling the crisis and says it’s all just a hoax? Yup.
The MSM says nothing but calumnious lies and slurs about Trump, either grossly distorting his words and actions or simply making it all up. PRAVDA during the cold war was more truthful than our MSM.
Aaaaaaand part 2:
Which brings up a subject much discussed here before:
Are Trump’s tweets bad, or good?
You all know that I’ve said they are EXCELLENT, because they are Trump’s channel for bypassing the lying buckets of vomit in the MSM and telling the unvarnished truth to Americans.
And it seems I’m no longer alone in this sentiment:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2020/03/17/im-done-a-guest-post-by-michael-hooten/
If the Dhimmicrats were in charge, infections would already have passed 1M and be climbing uncontrollably, along with the attendant 2% or so deaths. We are LUCKY AS HELL that Trump is in charge.
Trump needs his own dedicated radio and TV channels in addition to Twitter.
Staying in touch with family in Italy. It’s awful there. You can’t go out on the street without a justifiable reason – people are subject to arrest. A niece working in Paris has fled the city to go back home to Italy – apparently things are descending into chaos in France. She is staying in her old room at home, self quarantining for 15 days.
I’m spending my time reading, playing World of Warships, cooking and cleaning, and getting some exercise at home (pushups, some weights.) I’m finding one great way to stay engaged is to try new recipes in the kitchen.
Everyone please stay safe, hale and hearty.
Civilizations can withstand a lot more than 2% mortality rate though was has to and what will happen is at best difficult.
Again, 2020 March the Dreams of Liberals died. You will see a resurgence of socialism/communism but it won’t last.
This is the best example of panic becoming reality that I’ve seen in a long time. We will be inundated with references to FDR and his response to the great depression. Be prepared.
Oh Tremendous Slaughterer of Chaldeans,
It’s not just the mortality rate of 2.x%, but the fact that fully 16% have severe symptoms (viral pneumonia) and 4% become critical. This is a pretty scary illness.
The critics of GEOTUS are making themselves truly, truly HATED at this point by a wide swath of the public. You can see Trump every day sending out tweets and giving press conferences on the very solid actions his administration is taking to deal with this, but from the MSM and the libmaoists you hear nothing but febrile vitriole and poisonous hatred. The contrast between a can-do, energetically active and deeply concerned leader working tirelessly for all of America and the do-nothing spiteful polemic of his opponents is quite stark.
There will be a Reckoning.
TSW,
I am very suspicious of the numbers being cited ( not you in particular) by various experts. The reckoning is in progress.
Who is this Thales you mention?
TSW,
You are right. I’m trying to point out how panic becomes reality. Already the “numbers” are looking better. With the numbers showing young people as a higher percentage of positives, that really means the steps taken to protect the most vulnerable are working (nursing homes, preexisting conditions etcetera). With the positive returns moving into the population best able to handle the disease on a personal physical basis, I think means we will see a decline (perhaps appreciatively) in mortality numbers. The positive returns are not nearly as important as the mortality numbers.
And yes there will be a reckoning.
Oh great tormentor of Chaldeans. Spies tell me Thales is an infiltrator working for the Eastern Romans. Some say he might be trying to overthrow your greatness.
Yeah, we’re going to have to keep an eye on this Thales character – ya never know about the newcomers.
Some more about the MSM’s evil acts in Wuhan/Chinese Flu (YEAH, I SAID IT!) news coverage:
https://pjmedia.com/trending/the-top-10-lies-about-president-trumps-response-to-the-coronavirus/
Latest news I’ve heard is that GEOTUS has activated the National Guard in NY State, Calizuela and Washington State, and that emergency supplies are on their way there.
Got a friend in Massachusetts. His wife (who is a cutie) is a hospital worker and believes things are likely to get quite bad unless equipment shortages (especially masks and gloves) can be solved very, very quickly.
Hold onto your butts, folks…
TSW,
Perhaps he is Byzantine, but the name Thales seems somewhat Thracian, but everyone know Spartacus lives in New Jersey. Perhaps this is an evil Chaldean machination!
Oh Ye Who Makes The Chaldeans Wail In Terror and Despair,
I don’t think this Thales guy is a Chaldean – he’d be too afraid to post here.
Nonetheless, we need to keep an eye on him, as with all newcomers…..
Looking forward to when this Chinese Flu/Wuhan Flu/Kung Flu/Flu Manchu is over. I’m out of fresh fruit and veggies and am now delving into the frozen, canned and jarred reserves. It’s not terrible, but the fact that I don’t have the fresh stuff makes me miss it.
At least I still have lots of Segafredo espresso beans. 🙂
I’m beginning to believe Thales uses these infrequent posts to see what kind of comments we make for the laugh value.
Hmmm! Maybe it is a Chaldean conspiracy. Or maybe Putin is behind it.
Almost out of fresh milk. Have a supply of evaporated milk – enough to last a solid 3 months. But it’s not the same.
Red China needs to pay a nasty price for this bullshit. They REALLY have to be made to regret this.
So glad that you’ve returned, Thales. It’s been too long.
My husband and I have set aside a small sum to buy stocks today – while they are still low. I’m betting that they will rise quickly, then pause (or even retreat slightly), then, take off like a rocket.
As will the economy. We’ll be so relieved that we are back to work, still alive, and with a few extra bucks (thanks to the priming of the new bill) in our pockets. This whole mess didn’t stop the Americans, and Trump will be the beneficiary.
As will the American public, who will take back control of essential medical supplies and medicines, and other essential equipment and supplies. Manufacturing is about to experience a Big Boom!
Triple Sphinctered, I’m going disagree with you about Cleveland. A lot of blue-collar workers there, and a low-cost environment to live and work. Few bums on the street (cold weather has its advantages). There is pent-up demand, people with a good work ethic, and access to natural resources.
I don’t agree that they will spiral into Pandemic-Land.
France is reporting Hydroxychloroquine/Azithromycin is effective against the Wuhan virus. Also placing those on ventilators on their stomachs helps.
This should be good news to everyone except those in Nevada where the Governor is waiting for FDA approval before allowing Nevadans to receive this treatment.
Question, can a Governor make such a ruling without the state legislature’s signing off on it?
Wow. Ignoring advice from medical experts, the Nevada governor demands approval from the bureaucracy of the central government before taking action that could save lives.
Holy crap.
Makes sense that he’s a dhimmicrat. All Is The State and The State Is All is their style.
On Front Page Magazine this morning there is an article on how LA health dept. is shutting down restaurants selling their inventory as groceries because the restaurants don’t have the proper permit. Also an article about USAID sending PPE including masks to other countries and one on manufacturers selling N95 masks and other PPE to other countries because hospitals and states can’t come up with proof of funds fast enough.