So it’s time for a day-by-day breakdown of how things are going in the clusterfuck of an election. All along I’ve distrusted the polling data, because it conflicts so obviously with what I’ve actually seen. But at the same time, the polls are tracking something even if they have, in my opinion, underestimated the Trump Closet.
Contrary to my last election post, Trump may have a shot at this thing now. The email scandal has, by itself, moved the FiveThirtyEight election odds by 7% in the last few hours alone. Nate Silver had him at around 13% odds only a few days ago. Trump now hovers around 30%. If we figure the Trump Closet exists, then he has good odds. If it doesn’t, it’s 1 in 3. Not good, but not entirely hopeless.
Something struck me today, though, about how Hillary and the Democrats operate. Leftism is a subtle disease. You rarely get the sort of self-constructed Bolshevik revolutions that took over Russia and Cuba. Rather, Leftism slowly works on people, breaking down their defenses, using everything from focus group data to tactics of ideological subversion to slowly convince people to come to the Leftist banner.
Meanwhile, Leftism fights against reality, which periodically intrudes in epic proportions. Take 9/11, for instance. For a time, NYC, Babylon-on-the-Hudson, started spewing Conservative-sounding rhetoric. An Islamic attack has a tendency to do that. Or take the crime wave that hit New York prior to Giuliani taking office there. Again, reality intruded, and required someone who wasn’t a complete Leftist to deal with it.
We see the same in the polls in this election. Hillary slowly builds up support through advertising, campaigning, media stumping, propaganda, etc… and periodically reality will intrude and sharply reverse her progress, such as the drop of this latest email scandal with Weiner. Suddenly polls that were saying Hillary had a 12 point lead, now say she has a 1 point lead. One even reversed so far as to give Trump the advantage.
Of course, how believable the +12 Clinton polls were to begin with is a matter of some skepticism. Nonetheless, while they have likely been way off all along, the movement, the tracking, is noteworthy.
Leftism is an exercise in the denial of reality, but reality still gets a vote, and when those hammers drop they are usually quite severe, and take years to reverse. Nonetheless, and perhaps most disturbingly, the Leftists do appear to manage that reversal. Imagine asking New Yorkers about Syrian refugees with possible terror connections on, say, 9/12? Now ask them today.
See what I mean? That didn’t happen overnight, and it cost Democrat operatives like Podesta immense time, money, connections, and effort to achieve.
This is one reason why I remain consistent in my discussion of Trump as a lesser evil. He has his flaws, but a Trump presidency is unlikely to continue the trend of systemic reality denial on the part of the people. His bombastic behavior will either be true, in which case he will do some good by shedding light on it, or will be wrong… and promptly pounced on by every self-anointed fact checker on the Internet.
But Hillary’s political machine will slowly but surely bend the people in the direction she wants to go. Or, at least enough of them to hold on to power, at any rate. There’s a strong percentage, but still far short of a majority in this country, who will not be propagandized. Eventually Hillary will run up against a wall she can’t move. And being a consummate denier of reality, she may just attempt to make it move. To whip the sea of gun owners, so to speak.
But by the time we come to that, it may be too far gone to save this country from Civil War.
Trump is a vote for a delay, maybe enough to give us some time to turn the Titanic around before the iceberg, maybe not. But I feel like we have to try.