Election night looms before us. Four years ago, we had the Hail Mary pass of all Hail Mary passes. At the time, I thought that America had reached peak divisiveness. Years of Social Justice crusades across the Internet lost steam. Salty tears flowed from the Bluechecks like a flood of Biblical proportions. But what truly happened? Was this a fluke? Was it the last gasp of old America? Tonight is when we will learn that. All your base are belong to Trump, indeed (and this may have been my finest meme-making work):
Once is an accident. Twice is a pattern. Tonight will tell us which it really was.
Events did not deliver the change we sought in 2016. I can’t blame Trump for that, as much as I’d like to. A media and pop culture establishment fused with Woke Corportatism to become some kind of Frankenstein’s political monster. Trump’s attention span – such that it is – was spent fighting that monstrosity almost every day. Oh, we had our share of wins. We got our judges – and should we fail tonight, well, that is the last roadblock we have left. That’s not nothing.
But now we are on the verge of Civil War, or something akin to it. I’ve never seen divisiveness of this sort in my country in my entire lifetime. We’ve gone from the occasional beatdown in a protest, to burning neighborhoods and roving gun battles in the streets. Perhaps the political Rubicon has been crossed and it’s too late, no matter who wins. Political rage is everywhere.
The polls would tell us to have no hope. Even FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 89% chance of victory, compared to 2016 where Nate at least offered a 1 in 3 chance for Trump. Are the polls completely wrong? The possibility is very strong, in my opinion. With the emotional charge of politics today, in the middle of what may be a major political realignment, how can a pollster even account for all of the variables? How can the pollster be more accurate than a flip of the coin under these circumstances? The statistical models of the past may have worked in a pre-divisive environment, but I highly suspect everything is off, now. Of course, tonight will tell us that, too.
Statespoll tries to compensate for these factors as best they can with their modeling. They believe Trump is likely to win. But it’s unclear to me that this is any more likely to be right than Nate Silver. A coin flip may be a better prognosticator than any of them.
2020 has tested the fabric of America in a way, in my opinion, even the 1960s did not. In some ways, Kurt Schlichter’s split of America scenario may be overly optimistic compared to what lies before us.
Before 2016, I had many Lefty friends – perhaps more than Rightist ones. After all, as a DJ and a software developer working in the city, my environment has been one of perpetual Leftism, to the point that I started this blog primarily as a way to express things I could no longer say to people I cared about – and still expect to keep the peace. That reason has largely evaporated. Most of them are long gone, now. Denouncing me one at a time as a hater, bigot, Nazi, or whatever. Of the few that remain, most of the time we dance around the subject entirely. They know what I am, and I know what they are, but we pretend we do not know. It’s a shallow way to live, but I take pride in the fact that I never told them to get lost, or pushed them away.
Always it comes from their side, not mine.
Will that continue? Perhaps with me. I am not built in such a way as to tell people in my life to fuck off due to their politics, and that is, in some ways, a weakness. Though of late I have stopped talking to them and kept my distance in the hopes that, perhaps, sanity will return. But will that continue with the rest? A thousand events all across the country, from Kenosha to the Biden Bus incident show that Rightists are becoming as hostile in turn as Leftists have been these last few years. I can’t fault them. One of the prevalent themes in Tom Kratman’s books is the notion that your enemy will learn from your actions. He will become like you. If you do something to him, he will learn, and do it to you in turn. I don’t like these things that are happening, just as I would not want to do some horrible thing even to an enemy. If the enemy does it first, however, you must do it, or something of equal or greater magnitude, in turn. Otherwise he will never learn.
Otherwise you become the chump hitting “Keep Faith” every time your opponent hits “Betray”. Perhaps Betraying in turn will teach him a lesson, or perhaps not, but at least you’ll be even in the latter case.
If you believe this is an American phenomenon alone – and I doubt many of my readers do – take note of the fact that Chile may need to bring back Augusto Pinochet after this business:
Vox freely admits that Pinochet’s reforms brought prosperity and economic growth to Chile. Are they going to throw that all away for Venezuela-level equality? It’s hard to tell, I don’t trust anything the media spouts these days. But if so, I wonder if Chile has another Pinochet. If the choice is to let your country fall to Socialism and have mountains of dead bodies, or throw a couple thousand Communists out of helicopters, well, is that really a difficult choice?
I prefer freedom over any of that, this goes without saying. But if politics has taken freedom completely off the table, and the only options are your boot stomping on my face, or my boot stomping on yours, what choice do you really expect me to make? Leftists think Trump is a dictator. They wouldn’t know a dictator until he put them in front of the firing squad. Trump isn’t even remotely close. As far as I know, he has killed zero Communists. But as the old saying goes: play stupid games, win stupid prizes. If you WANT a military coup and dictatorship, scapegoating roundabout 50% of the American population – the ARMED 50% – is a pretty good way to risk ending up with one.
If Trump wins tonight, I fully expect a meltdown of near-Biblical proportions. If Biden wins, well, the news outlets saying this would be the less violent option may prove to be right in the immediate short term. In the long run, a Kamala Harris shadow presidency is, in my opinion, as likely as not to end up in a Kurt Schlichter scenario, and ultimately may prove worse on the violence and stupidity scale.
Either way, I still hope Trump pulls it out. If we can manage a few more years of relative prosperity, maybe my own family will be better insulated against the shitstorm I think is waiting for this country in the coming years. I hate that we’ve ended up here, with a country full of people denouncing their neighbors as Trump supporters, throwing away friendships, family, marriages, and careers over this. But I have no control over events. None of us do.
We’re all passengers on the Titanic. Some of us are even shouting to the crew that there’s an iceberg ahead.
Nobody seems willing to turn the wheel.
And it might be too late to do anything about it anyway, now.
May God be with you, my friends.